Iran's leadership has issued stern warnings, promising to respond with unprecedented ferocity if attacked.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior political advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, described any US military action as the 'start of war,' warning of immediate, comprehensive retaliation against US and Israeli interests.
Iran has been fortifying its military, notably increasing its drone stockpile; reports suggest the Iranian army has received a new batch of 1,000 drones, enhancing its ability to conduct rapid strikes and asymmetric warfare.
Diplomatic meetings signal rising tensions
This week, US President Donald Trump hosted high-level defence officials from Israel and Saudi Arabia to discuss Iran's escalating threats and potential military responses. The meetings reflect a deepening regional crisis, with Western allies seeking coordinated strategies amid Tehran's aggressive posturing.
Saudi officials reportedly relayed messages to Washington aimed at de-escalation, though no significant negotiations to prevent conflict are underway. Meanwhile, Israeli representatives shared intelligence on possible Iranian targets, indicating a shared concern over Iran's growing military capabilities.
Sources close to US discussions reveal that Trump is considering a range of military options, including targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leadership figures.
'A massive Armada is heading to Iran,' he wrote on Truth Social. 'It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela.'
'Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,' he added.
The goal, according to insiders, is to foster protests and create conditions conducive to regime change. Some officials believe such strikes could ignite protests within Iran, potentially weakening the current government.
'Hopefully Iran will quickly "Come to the Table" and negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn't, and there was "Operation Midnight Hammer," a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don't make that happen again,' Trump concluded.
Risks of miscalculation and regional widening
However, experts warn that these actions carry significant risks of miscalculation, potentially escalating into a broader conflict.
Security analysts express caution about US military plans. Andreas Krieg, a security studies professor at King's College London, emphasised that Iran would likely respond with asymmetric tactics rather than full-scale war.
'If the US attacks, Iran's most likely retaliation is asymmetric and calibrated rather than an immediate all-out exchange,' he told The Independent.
'It can target US interests and partners through deniable channels, pressure shipping and energy routes, and use cyber operations,' he added.
"It will try to avoid an escalatory cycle that forces Israel into a sustained campaign, because that risks widening the conflict beyond Tehran's control."
Krieg highlighted that Iran would aim to avoid a cycle of escalation that might draw Israel into a prolonged conflict, risking a wider regional war.
'The central danger is miscalculation. Coercive signalling can quickly become a war neither side claims to want,' he concluded.
Potential for unintended conflict
Military actions against Iran could lead to unintended consequences. Experts warn that a misjudged strike might trigger a series of retaliations, pushing the region into chaos.
The risk of miscalculation remains high, especially given Iran's capacity for covert operations and asymmetric warfare. The concern is that coercive signals could spiral into a conflict neither side desires, but one that becomes unavoidable once hostilities commence.
Despite ongoing discussions, formal negotiations between the US and Iran remain absent. Most regional players, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, appear to prefer backing US efforts to counter Iran's influence.
Saudi Arabia has been actively passing messages aimed at calming tensions, but their influence appears limited amid Iran's military advancements.
Originally published on IBTimes UK
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