An astronomer says that extraterrestrial life exists and the universe has life in it, despite not finding signs of ETs or exotic proof of their existence.
For the most part, finding where life is a needle in a haystack, prompting the question of whether mankind is just on a blue orb, and destined to be alone in the cosmos.
Enter David Kipping who utilized the Bayesian model to estimate how life developed on earth and flourished, from primitive hot springs to systems that sustain life on our planet. How did life on earth take off and there are gaps in the knowledge, where it sprang from several billion years ago. The astronomer thinks that statistic odds are 9:1 or better.
According to David Kipping, life and its emergence with the entry of the humans in a later time, which is the progression in an evolutionary path as it suggests. One goal of the study is to effectively count all the facts as they are.
How old is the earth?
The approximate age of the earth is about 4.5 billion years old, from the time it was formed in the solar system.
One method used is the Bayesian statistical inference that will change chances to have an idea that will be for the evidence gained to support a hypothesis. When the evidence is there to quantify, and life that is more than mindless microbes or simpler has hedged the odds more.
Bayesian models and four answers it offers.
As a statistical model, the Bayesian construct has four possible answers that are possible. Most life in the universe is widespread and will gravitate to intelligence.
Life is not as widespread as believed, but intelligence will be the end result. In the universe, life is common but intelligence is a rare thing, or most life is dumb in the universe. If there is any life in the cosmos, it will be a gazillion to one with almost no chance of intelligent life.
David Kipping states that the widespread life in the cosmos will be nine times possible, compared to a rare one, though if life can get intelligent will be a longshot too.
The odds that he expounds, especially the widespread life scenario will at least nine times more than a rare one. Although if life is intelligent that will be on the weak side, based on the Bayesian model.
For the circumstances like on Earth with intelligence is very slim, Earth got lucky and that will be variable, he commented of the study. In the final analysis, the weak preference at 3:2 odds as a bet. Mankind's intelligence is very seldom and bordering on pure chance, in the late coming of humankind.
Suppose starting from point zero of earth and the development of the fauna it has now, intelligence will not arise. All because events are random and life on earth is just pure luck.
Much of the analysis according to David Kipping only applies to earth, it cannot be used for exoplanets that are getting discovered by astronomers.
He further said that it is based in statistical probabilities, but there is a chance that the universes are full of life. Looking farther for intelligent life is far from earth should be done. This research is already published in the National Academy of Sciences.