As the immigration bill makes its way through the Senate with what appears to be some bipartisan support pundits are wondering if supporting the bill will have negative political ramifications for Republicans. Will two potential front runners for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, Sen. Marco Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush, have their aspirations crushed because they supported the immigration bill?
While it has been no secret that the Republican Party has been trying to woo Hispanic voters, the Hispanic vote was a key demographic in both of President Barack Obama's victories, the order that the primaries fall in may hurt a candidate who supports immigration reform, according to the Christian Science Monitor.
States like Iowa and New Hampshire tend to have Republican voters who are very socially conservative, mostly white and likely to support Evangelicals. For example, in 2008 Mike Huckabee won Iowa and Pat Buchanan found himself victorious in New Hampshire in 1996, reports the Christian Science Monitor.
"Pro-reform candidates could have a hard time in the caucuses and primaries, but let's remember there are other issues that drive activists, too," David Yepsen, a former political reporter for the Des Moines Register, told the Christian Science Monitor. "Electability in November and likability on the stump are two."
One hope for potential candidates like Rubio and Bush is that immigration reform passes in the next couple of months, giving voters two years to potentially forget about the issue. Otherwise pro-reform candidates may have to hope that voters look past that one issue because they are so attracted to the other qualities of the candidate.
"If a candidate puts together a package that's attractive overall, some hard-lines may overlook a single issue in favor of getting a candidate who might actually stand a chance of winning," Yepsen said.
Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, told the Christian Science Monitor that the immigration issue won't play out in New Hampshire like it does in states like Iowa, New Hampshire has a lot of high-tech jobs and tends to have well-educated residents.
"Look at the last two New Hampshire [primary] winners - McCain, Romney," Scala said. "They're much more center-right Republicans, inasmuch as immigration reform is becoming an acceptable mainstream Republican position, people who are outside and make a point of it, I think that might damage people's enthusiasm."
It may seem like 2016 is still the distant future but for Republicans eyeing the White House how they act now may be critical to their chances.
