Air travelers may face higher ticket prices this summer as rising oil costs linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran send jet fuel prices soaring.
The disruption follows Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, pushing crude above $100 a barrel and national gasoline prices to their highest levels since October 2023.
Jet fuel has not been spared. According to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index, prices reached $3.99 per gallon last Friday, just ahead of the busy travel season, NY Post reported.
"Prices have gone absolutely crazy in the markets," said Michael Taylor, travel practice lead at JD Power.
"I would expect to see a triple-digit impact on tickets depending on how much the airline is willing to absorb and what the competitive marketplace looks like."
The surge in fuel costs could hit long-haul international flights hardest, which consume more jet fuel than shorter trips. Airlines have been forced to reroute flights around parts of the Middle East to avoid conflict zones, further increasing fuel consumption.
While some international carriers, such as Cathay Pacific and Air France-KLM, have announced higher fuel surcharges, most US airlines typically raise overall ticket prices instead.
"These increases are already showing up online," Taylor noted, pointing to examples like $900 round-trip tickets from JFK to Orlando in June.
Summer airfare could spike more than $100 as jet fuel prices rise over Iran war: experts https://t.co/Q2bj5RUcSh pic.twitter.com/X1SuS7sW6T
— New York Post (@nypost) March 16, 2026
Airlines May Absorb Extra Fees
Airlines are expected to avoid raising fees for extras like checked bags or priority seating, as these have the greatest impact on customer satisfaction.
Fuel costs account for 20-40% of airline operating expenses, making them highly sensitive to market shocks.
Many European and Middle Eastern airlines hedge their fuel purchases, securing fixed prices months or years in advance.
In contrast, most US carriers have abandoned this practice, leaving them vulnerable to sudden price swings.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC that higher fuel costs would have a "meaningful impact" on the carrier's financial results, likely affecting ticket prices soon.
Analysts warn that continued disruptions could extend the effect. Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia have already cut output, while Iran reportedly continues to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to BBC, Jane Hawkes, a consumer travel expert, said, "Airlines tend to build fuel costs into their pricing, so if those costs stay high, we may well see fares creep up as we head towards the summer holidays."
Originally published on vcpost.com
