Interest has been increasing pertaining to the whereabouts and condition of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu over the past few weeks as he was missing in several key defense meetings with Southeast Asian counterparts. This led to speculations from several Western reports and sources that he might have been dismissed from the post or was under house arrest.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the 65-year-old general was supposed to meet the defense ministers of Singapore and Vietnam in recent weeks, but was not able to do so. His last appearance was in Beijing on August 29 when he delivered a keynote address at a security forum with African nations.
As Shakespeare wrote in Hamlet, “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.” 1st: Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen or heard from in 3 weeks. 2nd: He was a no-show for his trip to Vietnam. Now: He’s absent from his scheduled meeting with the Singaporean Chief of Navy…
— ラーム・エマニュエル駐日米国大使 (@USAmbJapan) September 15, 2023
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The Washington Post cited US officials in its report when they said Li was under investigation for corruption and would likely be relieved from his role. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Chinese official was being removed from office, while the Financial Times stated the US government believed Li was under investigation.
US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel also speculated on Li's fate.
"1st: Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn't been seen or heard from in 3 weeks. 2nd: He was a no-show for his trip to Vietnam. Now: He's absent from his scheduled meeting with the Singaporean Chief of Navy because he was placed on house arrest???" he wrote in X, formerly Twitter.
China's defense ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment, while the US Embassy in Tokyo said it did not have immediate further comment.
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Drama in Beijing?
Meanwhile, when asked whether Li was under investigation, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters at a daily news conference that she was "not aware of the relevant information."
Li's absence was the latest in a series of disappearances in China's key and senior leadership roles following the replacement of its foreign minister Qin Gang in July after a prolonged period out of public view, as well as a shake-up of the leadership of the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force in recent months.
Like Li, Qin is one of China's five state councilors, a cabinet position that ranks higher than a regular minister.
The moves have raised questions from analysts and diplomats about the lack of transparency in China's leadership at a time its economy is slowing, its population declining, and its relations with rival superpower United States and other neighboring countries have soured over a suite of issues.
National University of Singapore scholar Chong Ja Ian told Reuters that the lack of clarity surrounding Li's absence underlined uncertainty over China's decision-making.
"The range of speculation demonstrates the high uncertainty of the PRC (People's Republic of China) system at present," he said.
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