Russia's invasion of Ukraine was met with harsh economic sanctions, by the US and its European allies in an attempt to strangle Moscow's attacks in Kyiv, which includes Russian oil ban.

Now they turn to the oil-producing Middle Eastern nations to help make up for their the oil supply needs. However, can these countries help?

To avoid hurting their economies, the European Union has yet to cease oil and gas imports, which are Russia's main source of income, per CNN.

According to the International Energy Agency, a prospective EU ban on Russian oil may result in a shortfall of 2.2 million barrels per day (BPD) of crude oil and 1.2 million BPD of petroleum products.

The Issues of The Oil-Rich Countries In the Middle East

Despite holding over half of the world's proven oil reserves and much of its spare production capacity, the Middle East may not be able to save Europe due to the lack of infrastructure investment, conflict, political connections, and penalties.

At around 2.5 million BPD, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the biggest chunk of OPEC's excess capacity that is readily available, according to Amena Bakr, the chief OPEC correspondent at Energy Intelligence.

However, Saudi Arabia, OPEC's top producer, has consistently rejected the US calls to boost oil output beyond a long-standing cap agreed with Russia and other non-OPEC producers and is unlikely to follow European pleas to increase production.
Analysts believe that diverting current supplies from Gulf Arab consumers to Asian buyers could be costly.

According to Robin Mills, founder, and CEO of Qamar Energy in Dubai, this would only be achievable "within the flexibility of these long-term contracts" or by arrangement with the Asian customers.

Analysts also say that if the Gulf diverts its oil shipments from Asia to Europe, the move might hurt its relationship with China, which is its main buyer.

Iran is perhaps the most positioned to add oil to the market after the UAE and Saudi Arabia's combined capacity, but it remains under US sanctions as talks to renew the 2015 nuclear accord with international powers stagnate.

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Analysts estimate that if US sanctions were repealed, the country may contribute up to 1.2 million BPD. Iran had 100 million barrels in floating storage as of mid-February, according to Kpler, which means it could add 1 million barrels per day, or 1% of global production, for about three months.

Though, Bakr believes that the US is not inclined to sign a deal with Iran "just to put more oil" on the global market.

Meanwhile, Iraq could hypothetically pump an additional 660,000 barrels per day, according to Yousef Alshammari, CEO and head of oil research at CMarkits in London. He claimed it is now producing roughly 4.34 million BPD and has a maximum capacity of 5 million.

Though, sectarian rivalries and a political deadlock in Baghdad mean it can't be relied on to step in. Iraq also lacks the infrastructure to increase output.

Oil Producing Countries Stick Together To Fight Inflation, Food Supply Woes

The possibility of rising inflation and food shortages, along with higher oil prices, will aggravate inequities. But oil-producing countries will be better able to endure crises since they are wealthier than their neighbors, as per a report from DW.

"As part of their foreign policy, Gulf states have directed foreign aid and direct investment to support certain governments at certain moments," Karen Young, founding director of the Program on Economics and Energy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, explained.

Egypt, for instance, has been impacted hard by the Ukraine conflict and was obliged to lower its currency in late March. Saudi Arabia put $5 billion (€4.75 billion) in Egypt's central bank at the end of that month to help the country's economy. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, which is funded by the Saudi government, will boost its investments in Egypt.

Qatar, whose gas exports are expected to reach $100 billion (€95 billion) for the first time since 2014, has also pledged $5 billion in investments in Egypt.

"They're basically on a shopping spree. It is opportunistic but it also makes financial sense," Young said.

Rising energy prices are putting regular European consumers and company owners to the test, as they are trapped between the continent's reliance on cheap Russian energy and its disapproval of President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine.

Russia supplies 40% of gas and 25% of oil to European Union countries, and the present EU timeline does not anticipate energy independence from Moscow for another five years. According to AP News, EU is considering toughening sanctions as atrocities continue.

The European Union's executive commission suggested phasing out crude oil imports within six months and refined products by the end of 2022. It will have to be ratified by all 27 member countries, which will be problematic given that some are more reliant on Russian oil than others. Nonetheless, oil is more easily replaced than natural gas, which is used to generate power.

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