Black Voter Rate Exceeded White Rate in 2012; Start of a New Trend?

For the first time in U.S. history, blacks turned out to the polls at a higher rate than whites during the 2012 presidential election. The findings are thought to be indicative of a polarizing election that left many white voters staying at home.

William H. Frey, a demographer for the Brookings Institution, used census data and exit polls to analyze the voter turnout and compared it to numbers recorded in 2004 and 2008. Only 58 percent of eligible voters voted in 2012, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.

Frey found that if voter turnout in 2012 was identical to the turnout in 2004, Romney would have been able to make up Obama's 5 million vote margin of victory and win the popular vote. Both the total voter turnout and the white voter turnout were higher in 2004, while the black turnout was slightly lower.

The high voter turnout among blacks shows that the fears of voter suppression due to new voter identification laws were mostly unfounded.

Andra Gillespie, a professor of political science at Emory University, saw the voter turnout numbers as a reason to celebrate, albeit with a little bit of concern for the future.

"The 2012 turnout is a milestone for blacks and a huge potential turning point," Gillespie said. "What is suggests is that there is an 'Obama Effect' where people were motivated to support Barack Obama. But what it also means is that black turnout may not always be higher, if future races aren't as salient."

The numbers are additional evidence that the Republican Party will need to appeal to minority voters if they hope to win back the White House.

Whit Ayres, Republican consultant to 2016 Presidential hopeful Marco Rubio, says the Republican Party needs to find "a new message, a new messenger and a new tone."

While he is not suggesting that the party needs a complete overhaul it will need to appeal to more than white males in the future.

It remains to be seen if the higher turnout was an anomaly or if it is indicative of a new trend for future elections. Ayres is one of many who remain skeptical that these voter rates will continue without Obama on the ballot.

"It remains to be seen how successful Democrats are if you don't have Barack Obama at the top of the ticket," Ayres said.