Tensions in the Sudan have resulted in an uptick of disease, famine, and death as the Sudanese Army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, continues to battle against the Rapid Support Force, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
The Sudanese army and a rival paramilitary group agreed to a three-day ceasefire overnight, allowing more Sudanese to evacuate and foreign countries to repatriate their citizens.
According to the United Nations, the situation on the ground is dire.
"The situation in Sudan was a perfect storm as the health system is hardly functional. The childhood immunization program is breaking down, and infectious diseases are spreading," Acting representative of the United Nations World Health Organization said.
Humanitarian Crisis Brews
The World Health Organization recently released statistics that bear this out.
They report approximately 10,000 cases of cholera, 5,000 cases of measles, about 8,000 cases of dengue, and over 1.2 million clinical cases of malaria have been reported in Sudan.
This comes in a country that is fast becoming bereft of medical facilities and the personnel to properly run them.
Of the 503 health facilities operating under international aid agencies, 80 of them are either not running at all or only partially running due to a lack of personnel, medical supplies, or security concerns.
Furthermore, humanitarian agencies warn of a pending famine that they predict could start in May, the beginning of the country's lean season.
3.5 million children in the country are malnourished, with another 700,000 plus suffering from severe acute malnourishment.
"Hunger weakens the body's defenses; it opens the doors to disease and increases morbidity and mortality," said Mr. Graaff.
"Disease and malnutrition have an unhealthy synergistic relation," he explained, noting that pregnant women and children are most at risk, including of death.
As conditions on the ground grow worse due to the warring factions, the administrative and governmental pillars of civilian life in Sudan continue to crumble as well.
Is A Proxy War Being Waged?
Last year, ForeignPolicy.com predicted that the opposing Sudanese forces would likely fall into a stalemate, with each faction looking to coalesce regional power where they can out of the fragmented remains of Sudan.
Analysts believe that an undeclared proxy war between Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates could see Sudan as their proxy battleground.
The Sudanese Armed Forces are reportedly receiving military aid from Iran, Egypt and Ukraine while the Rapid Support Forces have received backing from the United Arab Emirates, Eastern Libya, and the Russian mercenary group Wagner.
Saudi Arabia has presented itself as a humanitarian in the Sudan, sponsoring ceasefire talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah, providing aid to Sudanese people inside and outside of the country and even helping evacuate citizens from war-torn Khartoum.
Egypt, an ally of Saudi Arabia, has provided aid to the Sudanese military in its aims to regain control of the entire country. Some have even suggested that the Egyptians could be considering an invasion of Sudan to help General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to fight the RSF.
However, say observers, Egypt does not have the resources nor desire to fight a war. But they can't afford to ignore what's going on in Sudan either due to its proximity.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates, which has silently sided with the Rapid Support Force, is keen to thwart any efforts made by the Saudis in Sudan even if only to be a thorn in their side.
Iran, enemies to both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, has stepped and have chosen sides in the concept with the shipment of Mohajer-6 single-engine unmanned aircraft manufactured by Ouds Air Industries in Iran. Sudan has 400 miles of coastline alongside the Red Sea, which is an area of great interest to Tehran.
The drone, according to U.S. officials, is capable of air-to-surface attacks, electronic warfare and battlefield targeting.
Iran is believed to already be giving support to Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. A partnership with Sudan would serve to expand their influence to significantly expand their influence in the region of the Red Sea.
Iran has already supplied drones to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Ethiopian Army, latter of which is in an ongoing dispute with Egypt. In the past, Tehran has denied supplying drones to the Houthis and Russia.
