Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service warned on Tuesday that Russia is gearing up for a possible armed conflict with Western countries within the next decade.
A growing number of Western officials have warned Europe of the military threat that Russia poses to countries along the eastern flank of NATO, calling for Europe to get prepared by rearming.
Russia Prepares for Military Confrontation With West
French Marines are seen during NATO Spring Storm exercises in Viitna, Estonia on May 20, 2023. The Spring Storm exercise that kicked off this week is the largest military exercise of the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) involving allied NATO forces. The Northern and Central Europe NATO forces are organized under the Enhanced Forward Presence (ePF) force currently under leadership of the UK.
The chief of the intelligence service stated that the evaluation was based on Russian plans to increase the number of forces positioned along its border with NATO members Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.
Kaupo Rosin told reporters at the release of Estonia's national security threats report that Russia has chosen a path that is a long-term confrontation, and the Kremlin is anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade.
Rosin said that a Russian military assault is "very unlikely" in the short term, partly because Russia needs to maintain soldiers in Ukraine and would continue to be unlikely if the Russian buildup of forces was matched in Europe.
He added that if they are unprepared, the likelihood of a military Russian attack would be much higher than without any preparation.
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, NATO allies strengthened their presence in Estonia and the other Baltic States, and these nations increased their military spending to over 2% of their GDP.
Germany intends to have 4,800 combat-ready troops in the region by 2027, marking its first long-term overseas deployment since World War II. According to Rosin, NATO and its allies were moving in the right direction to counter the Russian threat.
Rosin believes a Russian breakthrough in Ukraine before the country's presidential election in March is unlikely as it would need to mobilize significantly more troops to achieve that goal.
In response to remarks by US presidential candidate Donald Trump that he would not stand up for allies who underfund the military, Rosin said, "Such statements are never helpful."
He continued that Russia has continued to have a greater capacity than Ukraine to supply munitions to its forces. He also claimed that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to change the situation on the battlefield unless Western support is sustained or increased.
Putin Orders Expansion of Russian Military
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the country's military to add almost 170,000 soldiers, for a total of 1.32 million, as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine enters its 22nd month.
Putin's order was made public by the Kremlin on Friday and took force immediately. It increases the total number of Russian military personnel to nearly 2.2 million, including 1.32 million troops.
This is the army's second expansion since 2018. After Putin approved a 137,000 troop increase in August 2022, the military had around 2 million personnel and 1.15 million troops.
According to the defense ministry, the order does not suggest a significant expansion of conscription, saying the increase will occur gradually by recruiting more volunteers. The ministry claimed that the special military operation in Ukraine and the expansion of NATO were the reasons for the increase.
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