Data Analysts Say Russia's Invasion Decreased Ukraine's Birth Rate by 28%

(Photo: OLEKSANDR GIMANOV/AFP via Getty Images) A young woman carries a baby as she walks past the sign "Shelter" during an airstrike alarm near Transfiguration Cathedral damaged as a result of a missile strike in Odesa the day before, prior to service on July 24, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine on Sunday said 19 people, including four children, were wounded in a Russian overnight missile attack on Odesa that also killed one person.

Because of the war in their own country, Ukraine's population took a massive hit not only with the casualties they received but also with their birth rate.

According to the Ukrainian data analytics website Opendatabot, the country's birth rate fell by 28%, or a decrease of over 38,000 childbirths in the first half of 2023 compared to the over 135,000 births recorded during the same period in 2021.

This meant the number of births recorded in the first half of 2023 did not get past 97,000.

Steady Decline

Although the number of newborn babies has been in decline for the past decade, the current estimate was a nosedive since Ukraine gained its independence in 1991, the BBC reported.

Before the war, Ukraine had a population of 43 million, according to the United Nations (UN). Since it began, nearly six million have fled.

Opendatabot said the figures they released were in line with observations by demographic experts who recorded similar declines in previous wars.

Some experts say a catastrophic drop in the birth rate was expected because of the war, with the Kyiv Independent citing Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies director Ella Libanova when she said there are risks that by 2030, the country's population would decrease to less than 35 million.

Birth Rates Decline in War, Experts Say

Meanwhile, the US-based Population Reference Bureau said fertility rates typically fall by up to a third in a civil conflict but would rebound quickly once the fighting has ceased.

Before Russia's invasion, up to 23,000 babies were born in Ukraine every month, but since then, it has now fallen to about 16,000.

Despite this, there was not much imbalance between the sexes as the number of boys and girls born in the first half of 2023 was proportional, with only around 2,000 more boys being born than girls in the said period.

The last time a similar birth rate drop happened was after the 2014 Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea when the number of babies the year after went down by 12%.