Alberta separatists said they formally submitted hundreds of thousands of signatures aimed at triggering a referendum to secede from Canada.
Concretely, the group said it submitted about 302,000 signatures, above the 178,000 needed for the province to consider calling for such a vote.
The Associated Press detailed that the question about separation could be included on a provincewide ballot as early as October. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said in the past she would move forward with the initiative if it gathered enough votes even though she does not approve of it.
However, even if the vote is passed, Alberta would not be independent automatically: there would have to be a negotiation with the federal government. And an Edmonton judge is set to rule on a challenge claiming that a separation would violate treaty rights.
The Alberta independence movement, long marginal in Canadian politics, has gained renewed visibility in recent years amid debates over energy policy and federal-provincial relations.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, told the outlet that he believes the referendum has a slim chance of passing. "Right now, support for independence in Alberta is rather low. Less than 30% and much lower if we only focus on hard core supporters. And the odds of a victory of the pro-independence camp appear to be low at this stage," he said.
"Mark Carney is indeed popular, even in Alberta. The push for independence by some Albertans predates his prime ministership and it's related to economic, fiscal, and political grievances about the seemingly unfair treatment of Alberta by the federal government," he added. "These concerns increased during the Justin Trudeau years but they have peaked and even declined since he left office."
Canadian concerns about external influence have been amplified by rhetoric surrounding the separatist movement. "We're seeing evidence of foreign interference," said Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour earlier this year, pointing to online campaigns and political messaging linked to U.S. actors. "It doesn't feel organic, we are being targeted by the Maga crowd."
Originally published on IBTimes
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