Millions of Americans filing early for their 2026 tax refunds are facing fresh uncertainty as a partial government shutdown threatens to disrupt Internal Revenue Service (IRS) operations just as filing season begins.
For households that depend on refunds to pay rent, clear debts, or manage rising living costs, the timing could not be worse. With Congress locked in a funding standoff, questions are growing over whether refunds will arrive on schedule—or be caught in political limbo.
The Internal Revenue Service began accepting tax returns on 26 January for the 2025–2026 filing season, but the usual processing rhythm has been disrupted by the shutdown, reviving memories of past delays that stretched from weeks to months.
Bigger Refunds, Higher Expectations
The IRS said the average refund last year was nearly $3,200, and analysts at Piper Sandler estimate the typical payment could rise by about $1,000 to roughly $4,200 this season.
For those who file early, patience may still be required, even as refunds are expected to be larger this year.
Taxpayers can check their refund status using the IRS Where's My Refund tool on IRS.gov or the IRS2Go mobile app. Users need their Social Security number or ITIN, filing status and exact refund amount.
The tracker shows three updates. Return received. Refund approved. Refund sent.
Shutdown Squeezes IRS Operations
When there is a partial government shutdown, it not only slows the government's normal operations but can also disrupt essential services. If a funding lapse forces the IRS to scale back services, refunds are typically not issued during that period, according to the agency's past shutdown guidance.
During the 2025 shutdown, which ran from 1 October to 14 November, the IRS suspended most core operations, and within the first week, roughly half of the workforce was furloughed. As a result, processing slowed significantly, and many taxpayer assistance services were scaled back, causing delays and growing backlogs in return processing.
An exception previously applied to error-free 1040 returns filed electronically, which could sometimes be processed automatically and paid through direct deposit. Nevertheless, many taxpayers waited several months for refunds they had filed before the end of that tax year.
The events of this year may mirror those of the past, depending on how quickly the government resumes normal operations.
Deadlines Remain Fixed
One point remains unchanged: the filing deadline. Unless the IRS announces otherwise, the 15 April deadline still applies to individuals, businesses and employers, regardless of shutdown conditions. In previous funding lapses, the agency has repeatedly stressed that taxpayers must still file and pay on time.
That leaves filers in a bind—obliged to submit returns on schedule while facing uncertainty over when, or if, refunds will be issued.
Last year, the agency made it clear that all tax deadlines stayed in effect for individuals, businesses and employers alike.
Tracking Your Refund
Filing taxes beforehand requires patience, especially for those who do so. Using either the IRS Where's My Refund tool on IRS.gov or the IRS2Go mobile application, taxpayers can track the status of their refunds by providing their Social Security Number or ITIN along with the appropriate path for filing their taxes, as well as the down-to-the-penny amounts of each refund issued to taxpayers.
The tracker will notify you three times during the process: when the IRS receives your tax return, when it is accepted as correct, and when your tax refund is disbursed.
Although these updates seem straightforward, for many, the time to hear from the IRS will be longer than in previous years.
For now, experts advise filing early, opting for electronic submission and direct deposit, and preparing for possible delays. With refunds increasingly tied to household stability, the stakes of this shutdown extend far beyond Washington—straight into kitchen tables across the country.
Originally published on IBTimes UK
© Copyright IBTimes 2025. All rights reserved.
