In the most recent update from the Associated Press regarding the battleground state that is New Hampshire, former President Trump has recently won the last remaining unresolved delegate from the state.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 27: Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas on January 27, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Trump is campaigning in Nevada ahead of the state’s Republican presidential caucuses on February 8.
This gives him a 13-9 delegate advantage over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
The AP goes into detail discussing the numbers behind this update. It points out that the Democratic presidential primaries have more uniformity when it comes to delegate allocation procedures. For Republicans, the delegate rules vary from state to state. In regards to New Hampshire, 22 Republican delegates are given to candidates in conjunction with primary results.
The report argues that if a candidate receives 50% of the primary vote, then that candidate will receive 50% of the delegates, in this case, that 50% would be 11. In addition, the New Hampshire rules state that a candidate must obtain at least 10% of the primary votes to qualify for any delegates.
Only two candidates received more than 10% of the primary votes in the battleground state. Trump secured 54% and Haley secured 43%. The report that unlike most states where the math would entail multiplying these two percentages. In New Hampshire however, the first step in gathering Republican delegates would be to round the vote percentages to the nearest whole. These percentages would then be multiplied by the number of total delegates at stake. In this case, that number is 22.
This would give Trump 11.88 which rounds up to 12. Haley would receive 9.46 which rounds down to 9. However, this only accounts for 21 of the 22 delegates. But in New Hampshire, any unaccounted-for delegates would go to the candidate with the top votes. This is also called a "Winners Bonus" and thus would give Trump a 13 to 9 advantage.
To secure the Republican nomination a qualifying candidate must win a majority of delegate votes, 1,215, at the upcoming Republican convention which will be in Milwaukee this summer. Following the victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, Trump now leads by 33 to 17. However, Haley is seemingly in this for the long haul as she continues to push forward with fundraisers and has not caved in despite many of her fellow Republicans folding and endorsing Trump.
