Turkey Elections: Erdogan’s 20-Year Rule Could End

On Sunday, Turks participated in what could be one of the most significant elections in the country's history. The outcome of the presidential vote could result in the end of President Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year rule and have implications beyond Turkey's borders.

The Turkey election will determine the country's leadership, governance, economic direction, and foreign policy.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads a six-party opposition alliance, is Erdogan's primary challenger and has a slight lead in the polls, with two surveys on Friday showing him over the required 50% threshold, Reuters reported.

If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on May 28.

There have been concerns raised about whether Erdogan would relinquish power if he loses the Turkey election. Nevertheless, Erdogan stated in an interview with a dozen Turkish broadcasters on Friday that he came to power through democratic means and would act in accordance with the democratic process, per Al Jazeera.

The Impact of Turkey's Elections

Beyond Turkey's borders, the result of today's election has broad repercussions. Turkey has expanded its military influence across the Middle East and beyond under Erdogan, conducting incursions into Syria, starting offensives against Kurdish insurgents in Iraq, and offering military assistance to Libya and Azerbaijan.

In addition, Turkey has had diplomatic disagreements with Israel, Greece, and Cyprus over maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Turkey was also subject to US weapons sector penalties when it bought Russian air defenses.

The tight friendship between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised concerns about Turkey's NATO allegiance. These worries have only grown as a result of Ankara's recent unwillingness to support Sweden's and Finland's membership aspirations, according to The Guardian.

However, Turkey facilitated an agreement over Ukrainian wheat exports, highlighting its possible contribution to the conflict's resolution. Although Erdogan's loss in the Turkey elections would be strategically advantageous for the EU, it would be politically challenging since it could restart Turkey's membership process.