About a half a million registered Republicans and Democrats – and even independents – in New Hampshire head to the polls Tuesday to participate in the early voting state's primary. The tiny, fiercely independent northeastern state is known for its surprises precisely because voters not affiliated with either of the two parties are eligible to participate in either primary. In New Hampshire, there are just 23 delegates at stake on the Republican side, and 32 for the Democrats.
According to another unique tradition, voting got underway at midnight in some hamlets to kick off the first-in-the-nation primary. In Dixville Notch, Bernie Sanders swept Hillary Clinton, 4-0, while John Kasich eked out a win over Donald Trump, 3 votes to 2, according to USA Today. In Millsfield, Ted Cruz won the Republican vote over Trump, 9-3. Clinton beat Sanders, 2 votes to 1. In Hart's Location, population 43, Kasich bested Trump again, 5 votes to 4, with Chris Christie gathering 2 votes. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and Marco Rubio got one vote each. Sanders edged Clinton, 12 votes to 7.
If polling is to be believed, once the full day is complete, Trump and Sanders will walk away with the wins, by most accounts. As with Iowa, high turnout could be a determining factor. Although, New Hampshire typically has some of the largest voter turnout rates in the country.
The Republican field
As in Iowa, Donald Trump is poised for an early voting state win in New Hampshire, according to NBC News. Unlike Iowa, however, there have been few wild swings in the New Hampshire polls. If polling is to be believed to some degree, the real contest is among Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, who are all in the same bubble for second, third, fourth and fifth, with just a few points separating them.
Ted Cruz could benefit from a bizarre moment Monday night in which Trump used an expletive to describe the Texas senator after it was first used by a woman in the crowd at Trump's final rally, The Hill reported. Kasich needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to prove he's a viable candidate (he even said he would have to bow out of the race if he "got smoked" in New Hampshire), according to CBS News. The same goes for Bush, although he appears to be committed for the long haul, no matter the results. After a surprise strong showing to take third in Iowa, Rubio needs to do well in New Hampshire to stabilize what has been a strange week for the Florida senator, in which he had what is widely seen as a poor showing in the last debate before the New Hampshire primary, as well as a couple of awkward moments on the campaign trail in recent days, The Washington Post reported.
Among those who sit at the bottom – Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson – only the latter seems like he could drop after New Hampshire. Fiorina seems defiant, especially after being the only remaining candidate who was left off the debate stage last week. Christie appears to treat the race as a marathon. Carson, however, has slowly wilted over the last several weeks with several unforced errors and a dismissal of much if his top advisers. A poor showing in New Hampshire could spell the end of his 2016 bid for the White House.
The Democratic field
Bernie Sanders seems set for a win over Hillary Clinton, but the question appears to be by how much. Polling shows the Vermont senator winning by as much as anywhere from 4 percent to 30 percent.
"I am a realist," one Democratic operative told Politico. "As a strong Hillary supporter, I would love to say she will win; but I think Bernie Sanders has the advantage. However, he will NOT win by the margins the polls are showing. I think it will only be 3 or 4 percentage points, which is great considering he is practically a native son in New Hampshire."
Although the Clinton campaign sought to downplay reports that her camp would see a major reshuffling after the New Hampshire primary, the final tally in the early voting state could have an impact on how much and in what ways that reshuffling occurs. As one Democratic official put it: "The idea is that we need a more forward-looking message, for the primary - but also for the general election too... There's no sense of panic, but there is an urgency to fix these problems right now."
What a New Hampshire win means for Sanders is that he is building momentum after just barely losing the Iowa caucus to Clinton by just a half of a percentage point – something that many considered to be a win for the self-proclaimed democratic socialist, given the perception that Iowa was Clinton's to lose. Whether or not he can keep that momentum going into the next Democratic race in Nevada remains to be seen; he currently trails Clinton in the state by 20 points, according to RealClear Politics averages.
What the numbers say
In the final CNN/WMUR tracking poll before the New Hampshire primary released Monday evening, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders lead their respective fields by large margins. However, as we learned in Iowa, polling may have no effect on final result.
Here's the breakdown among Republicans:
Donald Trump: 31%
Marco Rubio: 17%
Ted Cruz: 14%
John Kasich: 10%
Jeb Bush: 7%
Carly Fiorina: 5%
Chris Christie: 4%
Ben Carson: 3%
And among Democrats:
Bernie Sanders: 61%
Hillary Clinton: 35%
If a single snapshot doesn't convince you -- and there are significant discrepancies -- here are recent Iowa polling averages compiled by RealClear Politics for each of the GOP candidates: Trump (30.7), Rubio (14.4), Kasich (13.0), Cruz (12.4), Bush (11.3), Christie (5.4), Fiorina (4.7) and Carson (2.9). And on the Democratic side: Sanders (54.5) and Clinton (41.2).
Five predictions
Nobody gets out after New Hampshire: "Well, I think the consequence now of what happened Saturday night [during the GOP debate] is, I think no matter what happens here – barring one of the candidates sort of skyrocketing or an upset over Trump – I think it means now nobody gets out," said NBC's Chuck Todd, according to Politico. "I think it means New Hampshire doesn't winnow the field."
Record turnout: "I expect that the turnout of this presidential primary will break a record of the number of votes cast," New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner told NBC News. "I thought that in 2008 we might not see anything like that for a while because that was such an incredible turnout but I think that this one will actually exceed that."
If you believe in endorsements: "One of the few spot-on predictors of last week's Iowa caucus was the number of endorsements each candidate had from sitting state lawmakers, which showed Cruz and Clinton leading. In New Hampshire, home to one of the country's largest state legislatures, it's former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina who holds a surprising (though slim) edge with 30 current state senators or representatives supporting her," according to Bloomberg.
Weather: New Hampshire missed what could have been a blizzard on Monday, keeping voters home in what is expected to be a record-setting primary on Tuesday. Instead, most of the state saw two to four inches of snow, while neighboring areas faced blizzard-like conditions, according to WMUR.
New Hampshire will continue to become less reflective: "I think that as the country moves to a majority of color-people country in the next generation, Iowa and New Hampshire will remain even more disproportionately white and that becomes even more of a problem," said Harvard lecturer Timothy McCarthy, according to the Harvard Crimson. "The weight of those victories gets undue power in the way the election gets spun."
What happens next
Once the New Hampshire race is over, Republicans and Democrats will go their separate ways for the next races in the primary season. Democrats will head to Nevada for the Feb. 20 caucus, while Republicans will go to the "First in the South" primary in South Carolina on the same date.
