Aaron Blair is a top pitching prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization. However, over the past few months, one could argue he's a forgotten man.
I'm not sure how anyone could forget a guy who's 6' 5" and 230 pounds, but fans, writers and pundits around the MLB are perhaps guilty of that.
Blair was one of the players that went from the Diamondbacks to the Braves in the blockbuster trade that sent starter Shelby Miller to Arizona. The D-Backs also surrendered outfielder Ender Inciarte and 2015 No. 1 overall pick shortstop Dansby Swanson, both of whom have been talked about incessantly ever since the deal had been struck.
The big stories have focused on Inciarte possibly being traded again (since so many MLB teams expressed interest in him this offseason) as well as Swanson returning home to Georgia, where he was born and raised.
But what about Blair? What about the intriguing pitching prospect that has quickly ascended through the minor leagues? MLB.com just ranked him the No. 56 overall prospect in all of baseball.
It only took the 23-year-old right-hander 51 minor league games to reach Triple-A after being selected in the first round of the 2013 MLB Draft. If you don't recall that draft class, here are a few names that might ring a bell: Mark Appel, Kris Bryant, Jon Gray, D.J. Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Braden Shipley (also drafted by the D-Backs), J.P. Crawford, Tim Anderson, Marco Gonzales, Billy McKinney, Rob Kaminsky, Aaron Judge and others.
(Blair actually grew up playing with Bryant a bit since the two are from Las Vegas. He said the NL Rookie of the year was "always the best hitter on whatever team he was on.")
When asked if he thought he felt there was more pressure to perform at a higher level since he was grouped with such a talented, one-of-a-kind draft class, Blair told Headlines and Global News, "I think no matter where I would have been picked, it would have been always good to represent yourself and your team and work hard."
The Houston Astros originally selected him in the 21st round of the 2010 MLB Draft, but Blair opted to attend Marshall University, which he said was his plan all along.
"I was excited and blessed to be picked at all that year," he recalled. "I just decided it was better for me - as a person and an athlete - to go to college. You can only experience college once."
In 2013 Arizona selected Shipley with the 15th overall pick and then took Blair 36th overall (he's the highest draft pick in Marshall history). Blair has progressed more quickly than Shipley since the draft, and, before the trade with the Braves was made, Baseball America ranked Blair as the Diamondbacks' No. 2 overall prospect, with Shipley behind him at No. 3.
According to MLB.com, Blair is now the No. 4 overall prospect in the Braves' organization behind Swanson, pitcher Sean Newcomb and shortstop Ozhaino Albies (Baseball America has yet to update their rankings since the trade). On top of that, he perhaps possesses a more favorable opportunity to make the Opening Day roster than he did in Arizona since the Braves are in a rebuilding period. Their pitching staff is arguably the team's biggest work in progress.
"I'm just going to go into camp ready to work," Blair said confidently. "The goal is to obviously make the team, but, if not, I can't sit back and dwell on it. I have to keep working and get ready for the full year coming up."
In September, Diamondbacks Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa said Blair would have a chance to win a job out of spring training in 2016, which is a considerable endorsement from a baseball legend.
The right-hander humbly responded to La Russa's comments, which he was unaware of.
"You know, it's great, but I didn't read into anything so I haven't really had time to think about it."
What he can read into is the fragile state of the Braves' pitching staff.
Atlanta's depth chart shows pitchers Julio Teheran (4.04 ERA in 2015), Bud Norris (6.72 ERA), Matt Wisler (4.71), Williams Perez (4.78 ERA), Mike Foltynewicz (5.71 ERA), Manny Banuelos (5.13 ERA), Ryan Weber (4.76 ERA) and Tyrell Jenkins (still has yet to make MLB debut) as options in the team's rotation. That certainly bodes well for Blair's future.
The right-hander did not get the call to the MLB when the rosters expanded in September due to his sizable workload in 2015. He went 13-5 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 26 games (25 starts), totaling 160-1/3 innings between Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno (his second straight season exceeding 150 IP). It was his best professional season by far, and the D-Backs probably could have used him in the rotation since their starters finished with the 23rd-ranked ERA last year.
Still, Blair will be immersed in yet another highly competitive atmosphere. A number of young pitchers/prospects will be competing for a job in the MLB rotation since the Braves' starters ranked 20th in the league with a 4.27 ERA in 2015 (even with Miller's 3.02 ERA). Last year in Arizona, there was much competition among the D-Backs' prospect pitchers (Blair, Shipley and Archie Bradley) because the MLB rotation clearly suggested some changes needed to be made.
"It's probably going to be the same type of competition," Blair objectively added. "Both organizations have big-league pitchers and the young up-and-coming prospects. Everybody is trying to fight and get to reach the same point: making the team."
The good news for Blair is that he thrives off competition. Last year during his stints at Class A South Bend and High Class A Visalia, the right-hander was just 5-4 with a 4.26 ERA in 19 starts before the Diamondbacks promoted him to Double-A Mobile.
The stakes got higher and Blair got better. He closed out the 2014 season with a 4-1 record, 1.94 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 46 strikeouts in eight starts (46-1/3 innings) at Mobile.
In addition to thriving in a more competitive environment, the starter attributed his success at the higher levels of the minors to his teammates.
"Learning from the older guys in Double-A helped me out. You learn more as you go up. That's just the process you take as a young pitcher, you learn from the older guys who have been there."
In 2015, after proving in 13 starts at Double-A (6-3, 2.70 ERA) that he was ready for a promotion, Blair discovered at Triple-A Reno that it's a much different atmosphere at that level of play, which forced him to incorporate another aspect to his game.
"When you get to Triple-A you have more of the older guys, ones that are up and down from the MLB," Blair explained. "You know they're smarter and their ability is still there, so it's a bit more of a mental preparation. It's something that you have to adjust to. I made the adjustments I needed to quickly and that helped me have a good campaign in Reno."
He went 7-2 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 56 strikeouts in 13 games (12 starts), totaling 77 innings. By the way, Aces Ballpark, the home of the Triple-A Reno Aces, is regarded as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the entire minor leagues.
Baseball America's scouting report on Blair provides insight as to why the pitcher is able to adapt to more competitive/unfavorable environments.
"The key to Blair's success is a heavy 91-95 mph fastball that features plus downhill plane, allowing him to keep balls on the ground and inducing weak contact. He gets swings-and-misses with an 11-to-5 curveball that he throws in the 72-76 mph range, a pitch that has improved from below-average to flash plus at times. His best secondary offering is a plus changeup in the 81-84 mph range that he uses to pitch to contact. He also brought out a fringy slider on occasion that gets slurvy at 82-84 mph. Blair is an effective strike-thrower whose big hands and clean delivery give him plus command, and he does a good job of pitching to his strengths. He's athletic for his size and repeats his delivery, projecting as a workhorse with a knack for going deep into his starts."
While Blair's frame might suggest he's an overpowering presence on the mound, that doesn't characterize the right-hander's approach. He's more of a strategic pitcher who finds ways to utilize his effectiveness and throw as few pitches as possible, which explains why he's averaged nearly six innings per outing since 2014.
"I don't necessarily go into an at-bat and think I'm going to strike somebody out, unless it's really needed," Blair admitted. "I like getting early contact ground balls, trying to get double plays with guys on base. I'm trying to work deep into games. Sometimes a strikeout can take five pitches, but a ground ball might take only two. That's just the kind of pitcher I am."
Although his approach has remained consistent, the setting in which he's executed it has not.
Blair is no stranger to a change of scenery. He went from playing high school baseball in Las Vegas, to attending Marshall in West Virginia, to being drafted by the Diamondbacks and playing minor-league ball in Oregon, Indiana, California, Alabama and Nevada.
Now he'll be in Georgia.
Depending on his status coming out of spring training, he'll likely have a more definitive situation since the Braves' Triple-A affiliate (Gwinnett) isn't far from where the MLB club plays. His most recent stint in Reno was especially convenient because he was much closer to his hometown of Las Vegas. His family wasn't too far away from the stadium and his fiancée was with him for the duration of his stay with the Aces.
"It was good being close to home," he said.
His future with Arizona seemed to have set him up nicely. With the D-Backs' Triple-A affiliate located in Reno and Chase Field less than a five-hour drive from Las Vegas, there were few better scenarios (if any at all). However, despite being traded across the country, Blair had no hard feelings towards the organization that drafted him, and he's excited to start a new chapter with the Braves.
"With all [the Diamondbacks'] signings this offseason and the year they had last year, they're just trying to keep building off of it. They just went out and got someone that fit more of the 'now' timetable rather than a prospect like myself.
"It was nice right after the trade. The Braves reached out to me and told me if I had any concerns I'd be able to contact them. I'm really looking forward to this season."
It seems as if the feeling is mutual with Atlanta. All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman, who has remained the centerpiece of the rebuilding club amidst all these trades and transactions, continues to remain optimistic about the players the Braves are getting in return ever since president of baseball operations John Hart and general manager John Coppolella began purging the MLB roster of nearly all of its stars at the end of the 2014 season.
"I'm looking forward to seeing those guys we got in the trades, like the Swansons, the Blairs, all those guys that we got from the Angels too," Freeman told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "It's going to be the same thing this year (as last spring), we're going to have to have name tags on our shirts. But it's a lot more exciting crew that we're going to have in spring training, to get to know these guys."
As for the Braves' front office, the team's executives have been under endless scrutiny for trading away players such as Miller, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Gattis, Jordan Walden, Alex Wood, Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons and former top prospect Jose Peraza, among others.
Coppolella has spoken to the media on numerous occasions to address the state of the team as well as the complaints and criticisms from fans and pundits. Most recently, he specifically talked about trading away Miller and Simmons, which were two of the biggest moves throughout the MLB this offseason.
"We didn't want to trade either player, but we also felt that the talent we received back in those deals made it too good to pass up those opportunities," general manager John Coppolella told Mark Bowman of MLB.com. "The other surprising development was the hyperinflation associated with the free-agent market. We feel this development further underscores the importance of having young talent in your system, because you cannot simply go out on the free-agent market and buy talent."
Well, anyone can buy talent, but that's rarely the most prudent way to go about building a team to ensure future success, especially for an organization such as the Braves. The franchise's largest payroll ($112 million) was recorded in 2014, which, at the time, was $3 million less than the league average, according to Baseball Prospectus. On top of that, there's little reason for the Braves to spend big money at this point because the team is waiting to make the transition to their new ballpark just before the 2017 season begins.
It seems as if they're set up nicely with a mix of veterans and one of the deeper farm systems in the MLB.
Blair figures to be an integral aspect of that project and he's well aware it's all part of a larger, long-term plan.
"The Diamondbacks did what they needed to do to get themselves where they think they needed to be," the pitcher said. "The Braves did the same thing with bringing in three really young players."
Maybe after his career in baseball, Blair can become a politician, because he seemingly always has the right thing to say regardless of the task he's faced with or the position finds himself in.
