To quote the immortal words of Jay-Z, "I'm not a businessman. I'm a business, man."
Fantasy football has become a really big business, man. In 2013, Forbes found that roughly 32 million Americans spent $467 per person on fantasy sports across multiple formats. That equals out to $15 billion in total playing. To put that into perspective, the NFL generates around $10 billion in annual revenue. Let that sink in for a moment: fantasy football is a more lucrative industry than real life football.
That's what makes the Nevada gaming regulators' decision to ban daily fantasy sports from the state last week so absurd. They say the "activity constitutes sports wagering," but they're just rifled because they have no stake to all that revenue. It's no coincidence that shortly after the ruling, the Gaming Control Board said that DFS websites (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.) could apply for a Nevada gaming license which would put them into a sports pool aka revenue sharing system.
Basically, the Gaming Board said: "We're peeved because you're making money and we're not, so we're going to shut you down and force you to cut us in." I guess the bottom line always takes precedent over business ethics.
Anyway, that's enough ranting for one day. As always, here are a few players I'm hot and cold on this week in fantasy.
HOT
QB: Russell Wilson
Wilson has been good-not-great this season and nowhere near his fantastic No. 3 finish in fantasy scoring from 2014. I think that's about to change.
He is finally starting to take full advantage of tight end Jimmy Graham, who's 12 targets-8 receptions-140 yards last week all marked season highs. It's a very simple formula: throw the ball to Graham and good things tend to happen.
It also helps that the Seahawks are playing the San Francisco 49ers, who are allowing 306.2 passing yards per game and have been scorched for the most fantasy points by opposing QBs. I know Seattle has now blown four second-half leads this year. But their defense has too much talent not to right the ship this week and put Wilson in a good position.
RB: Christine Michael
This is a bit of a gamble, but I think it will pay off for all of you who scooped Michael off waivers or are planning to play him in DFS. Michael is a bigger back more in the mold of DeMarco Murray than Joseph Randle ever was. From a stylistic standpoint, he fits what the Dallas run game is trying to do.
The Cowboys are trying to shake things up on the ground and have inserted La'El Collins into the starting lineup at left guard. He's a clear upgrade over Ronald Leary. Also, if you haven't noticed, the Giants defense has gotten progressively worse against the rush this year.
Overall, opposing running backs are averaging 18.2 fantasy points against the New York defense, which has allowed six total touchdowns to the position so far this season and a 4.5 YPC average over their last two games.
I think Michael is worth a shot this week.
WR: Stefon Diggs
Is Diggs only on this list because I'm starting him this week and saw him play in college once? No, but you can't blame me for trying to get the mojo going for him.
The popular free agent pick up this week has emerged as a go-to target for Teddy Bridgewater over the last two games (what, you thought Mike Wallace was actually going to work in Minnesota?). In that span, he's caught 13 passes on 19 targets for 216 yards.
Meanwhile, Detroit has allowed either 90-plus yards or a touchdown to an opposing wide receiver in every game except one this year. I'm digging Diggs this week...Anyone? No? I'll see myself out.
TE: Antonio Gates
Gates has returned from his four-game suspension with two big outings. Overall, he's notched 18 receptions for 187 yards and two tuddies. Though San Diego is unlikely to attempt 65 passes again this week, it's clear that Gates is still a preferred and involved target of Philip Rivers.
That's good, considering the Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season at a healthy clip of 14.4 points per week. The matchup is there for Old Man Gates this week.
COLD
QB: Tom Brady
Remember what I said about gambles?
If you own Brady, you're obviously starting him. He's the No. 1 scorer in fantasy. But for those playing DFS, I'd recommend another option.
The Jets are the No. 2 fantasy defense against quarterbacks and the Pats haven't faced a top 15 pass defense all year. New York is only allowing 198 passing yards per game and have forced 11 turnovers from opposing QBs so far.
Brady is Brady so he could always have a good game. But I don't see a lot of sparks flying in this one.
RB: Justin Forsett
Forsett has had a bit of a start-and-stop season. His first few outings were forgettable, but he's topped 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three games. Still, the 1-5 Ravens are hurting on offense which will allow the Cardinals to key in on Forsett this week.
Arizona has given up the tenth-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season and have only allowed one 100-yard rusher and one rushing touchdown all year. Plus, they're fired up after a wonky loss to the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers last week.
Forsett appears poised to repeat as a top ten fantasy RB this year, but this week may prove difficult.
WR: Amari Cooper
Cooper, the No. 4 overall pick in the draft this year, has a long and bright NFL future ahead of him. But his immediate future includes San Diego cornerback Jason Verett, who has held AJ Green, Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb to under 45 yards each this season. Yikes.
Beyond that, Raiders QB Derek Carr just hasn't looked Cooper's way in the red zone. In five games, Cooper has been targeted inside the opponent's 25-yard line just twice. Michael Crabtree, on the other hand, has 11 such targets.
The yardage won't be there this week thanks to Verett's smothering defense and Carr's tendency to look away from Cooper in scoring situations puts a definitive cap on his fantasy upside for now.
TE: Greg Olsen
This one could totally blow up in my face since Cam Newton literally doesn't have anyone else to throw to. But the Eagles are the second-best fantasy defense against tight ends, allowing just 2.8 points to the position per week. No TE has topped 56 receiving yards against Philly all year and my gut tells me that the Panthers are due for a loss this week.
