It's a simple formula, really: if the defense fears your passing attack, they're likely to commit an extra defender to quashing your aerial attempts meaning six or seven-man fronts and, presumably, more running room. If the defense isn't concerned with the damage you can do through the air or worried over the power of your running game, they're likely to stack the box with eight men and dare you to beat them with your quarterback's arm.
For the Cleveland Browns, this straightforward formula may be the reason that promising young running back Duke Johnson won't be able to break out in the manner he's actually capable of in NFL Year One.
"However, the Browns' quarterback play could be among the worst in the NFL next year, and that could lead to a lot of stacked boxes," writes Charlie Campbell of WalterFootball.com. "Johnson also will have to earn carries over Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell. Both of those runners are bigger backs and will probably be more effective against heavy run fronts, so Johnson could have a hard time finding carries with Cleveland. Johnson could be more effective and better in the second and third years of his career if the Browns are able to land a competent quarterback."
Competent quarterback play is probably the best Browns fans can hope for ins 2015.
Veteran journeyman Josh McCown seems to have the top spot locked up heading into minicamp, despite the fact that his very good 2013-14 season with the Chicago Bears seems more and more like an aberration and his 2014-15 season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when he posted 184 completions for 2,206 yards, 11 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and nine fumbles, a more accurate reflection of his actual NFL capabilities.
Johnny Manziel, of course, remains in place and has reportedly done good work this offseason, but his climb to a starting spot isn't just uphill - it's damn near vertical.
In short, whether it's West, Crowell or Johnson who sees the lion's share of the carries in 2015, it may not really matter because a limited passing attack means stacked boxes means a Browns offense unlikely to take major strides in Year Two under Mike Pettine.
Still, Johnson has reportedly been making strides already, opening eyes and showing the Browns coaching staff he's capable of handling more than his fair share of the load from the get go. Browns running back coach Wilbert Montgomery has already indicated that the Cleveland coaching staff is eyeing a versatile role for the electrifying Johnson.
"The best way I can describe Duke is what Thurman Thomas was for Buffalo," Montgomery said, per Ohio.com. "It's going to be all over the field. It's a 'Where's Waldo?' He gives you another dimension. He creates one-on-one problems. We hope he can be a little bit like the kid, [Giovani] Bernard, in Cincinnati. If he can do that for us, that gives us a different perspective on how we approach the field and gives us a chance to move people around and taking advantage of a mismatch."
While West and Crowell, a former third-round pick and an undrafted free agent, respectively, are likely to spend 2015 ahead of Johnson on the Browns depth chart, it may be that a rooke year spent moving around the Browns formation for the former Miami star could ultimately result in a better, more well-rounded and more productive NFL future.
