Value and quality can change over time. Look at the show "Dexter," which got off to a hot start before petering out in its later seasons. Look at M. Night Shyamalan, who was the hottest director in Hollywood for a time and is now a punch line. Just because something starts off good or with high expectations doesn't mean everything is going to go well.
That same line of thinking should be used in fantasy football as well. With Week 5 coming up there are likely millions of owners out there looking to make a trade. They're either trying to dig themselves out of a deep hole or cement their pack separation with a move. But trading is a tricky thing, an inexact science that includes careful calibration and negotiation. I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm King of Trades; most people I play with would accuse me of being way too stingy. But I do at least try to offer fair and equal value.
Just because you selected a guy in the early rounds doesn't mean he's more valuable than a back half pick. I'd rather have Ameer Abdullah than C.J. Anderson right now. Just because experts had high hopes for a guy doesn't mean you can ignore their awful to so-so starts. Don't offer me a Roddy White or a Teddy Bridgewater if you're just going to drop them the next day.
Try to come up with deals that benefit both parties; a transaction in which everyone walks away happy. It's difficult to do, but not impossible.
As far as lineups go, here are a few players I'm hot and cold on in Week 5.
Hot
QB: Eli Manning
No, this has nothing to with the fact that I just traded for Odell Beckham Jr. in one league (Okay, maybe a little bit). It has more to do with the fact that after a rough start, Manning is starting to live up to the lofty preseason fantasy hype. Three straight games with multiple touchdown passes. Three straight games with at least 32 pass attempts. The Giants rank just 24th in rushing offense (93 yards per game) which means they are going to throw, throw, throw.
It also helps that New York will be hosting the San Francisco 49ers (coastal transit never helps a defense) who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year and the fourth-highest passer rating (108.3).
RB: Alfred Morris or Matt Jones
Probably the most frustrating running back situation in all of football considering the Redskins lead the league in rushing (139.5 yards per game) yet haven't been able to produce a consistent fantasy back. I've never seen anything like that before.
Morris has out-touched Jones 70-to-46 and is the more proven commodity and safer bet of the two (see: Jones' goal line fumble in Week 3). But the rookie running back is undeniably the more dynamic talent. I have no idea which one will go off this week but I'm confident one of them will.
Atlanta isn't as good as their unbeaten record suggests, but they have a dynamite passing offense. Washington knows it could be looking at an early deficit so they are going to try to slow the game down and control the clock, which means pounding the rock against an Atlanta rush defense that has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Oh, and the Falcons have let up seven rushing touchdowns so far this season. Happy hunting.
WR: Alshon Jeffery
As of right now, it looks like Jeffery will return from a hamstring injury this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, so you're clearly playing him if he's healthy.
The Chiefs do not have a good pass defense and their best slot corner, Phillip Gaines, is done for the year because of a torn ACL. KC is allowing 296 yards per game through the air and has already surrendered a league-leading 11 passing touchdowns. They've also let eight (!) different receivers top 80 yards so far.
So...Yeah, go for it if he's healthy.
TE: Charles Clay
It would help Clay's stock if Sammy Watkins misses another game due to a hamstring injury (Clay racked up a whopping 13 targets last week with the WR sidelined), but even if Watkins returns Clay should be in for a busy day. The tight end has either topped 100 yards or caught a touchdown in each of the last three games. He's also playing a Tennessee defense that is allowing an average of 10.7 points to tight ends every week.
Clay is a solid top-10 option this week.
Cold
QB: Andy Dalton
Time to come back down to Earth my man.
Through four games, Dalton has been fantastic largely thanks to improvements up front along the offensive line. But Week 5 brings a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who have not allowed an offensive touchdown with Kam Chancellor on the field in their last 18 quarters. That is a mind boggling statistic.
Seattle has allowed just three passing touchdowns on the season and is surrendering an average of only 203 passing yards per game. But, you already knew they had a good secondary so I'll keep this short and warn you to temper expectations with Dalton this week.
RB: Melvin Gordon
I thought he'd break out against the soft Browns defense last week. It didn't happen. Now that I'm putting him on the cold list, he'll probably burn me.
But it's not likely. The Chargers have some serious question marks along their offensive line. I don't see that getting any better against a Pittsburgh defense that hasn't allowed a single rushing touchdown this season and should get 2014 first-rounder Ryan Shazier back this week.
WR: A.J. Green
See: Dalton, Andy.
Normally a stud, Green will be held in check by arguably the league's best secondary. Plus, the Seahawks are going to be fired up to prove last week's narrow/worrisome 13-10 victory over the Lions was an aberration. I think it's going to be tough sledding for the Bengals offense.
TE: Gary Barnridge
It's hard not to be impressed with Barnridge, who has racked up 180 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. For a pass-catching starved team like the Browns, he could be a solid option going forward. But against the Ravens, Barnridge may be shut out.
Baltimore has allowed a total of eight receptions and 31 yards to opposing tight ends all season. Despite a secondary that hasn't found its footing yet and the loss of Terrell Suggs, Baltimore locks down the TE position.
Play Barnridge if you have to but don't expect big things.
